The Q4 Bills That Don't Come Every Month

A cash forecast built from last month's bills misses the bills that do not come every month. Payroll, rent, and supplier invoices repeat, so they are easy to put on the list. The fourth quarter also brings bills that arrive once a year, and several of them tend to land between November and January.

The 90-day look at cash before October and a 13-week forecast are only as good as the list of outflows feeding them. This piece is the list of annual items that usually go missing, and where each one belongs on the plan.

Why Annual Bills Get Missed

Most forecasts start from the last few months of bank activity and project it forward. Anything that was paid once, eleven months ago, is not in that window. It shows up as a surprise even though it arrives on nearly the same date every year.

The fix is to pull last year's October through January bank and card statements and mark anything that is not a normal monthly payment. That list, plus the items below, is what gets added to the plan.

The Items to Look For

1. County property tax bills, including tangible personal property

Florida property taxes are due and payable on November 1, or as soon after as the county tax collector receives the certified roll (Fla. Stat. §197.333). The bills cover real property you own and, separately, tangible personal property: the equipment, tools, trailers, and furniture reported on the DR-405 return. The year-end tax planning checklist covers that return.

Payment is not required in November, but paying early is rewarded. Under Fla. Stat. §197.162 the discount is 4 percent in November (or within 30 days after the original notice is sent), 3 percent in December, 2 percent in January, and 1 percent in February. Taxes become delinquent on April 1, or 60 days after the notice was mailed if that is later (§197.333).

That makes it a cash decision, not only a tax bill. On a $10,000 combined bill, paying in November instead of March is worth $400. If November is also the tightest month on your plan, December at 3 percent may be the better choice. Either way, it should be decided in October, not defaulted to in March.

2. Workers' compensation premium audit

Workers' comp premium is charged on estimated payroll and then trued up to actual payroll after the policy period ends. Florida law requires employers in the construction class that generate more than the premium needed to be experience rated to be audited at least annually, and that audit must be a physical onsite audit when the estimated annual premium is $10,000 or more (Fla. Stat. §440.381(3)).

If payroll grew during the policy year, or work was done under a higher-rated class code than the policy assumed, the audit produces an additional premium bill. Check your policy's expiration date. If it falls in Q4, or an earlier audit has not billed yet, compare the payroll the policy was written on to what you actually paid and put an estimate of the difference on the plan. Workers' comp and payroll tax pitfalls covers why misreported payroll becomes a correction bill later.

3. Insurance renewals

General liability, commercial auto, and umbrella policies renew on their own dates, and a renewal usually means a down payment or a new financing schedule. Premiums move with payroll, revenue, and fleet size, so this year's renewal is rarely last year's number. List every policy that renews in Q4 and ask your agent for an estimate before the quote arrives. Controlling overhead covers reviewing renewals instead of accepting them.

4. Year-end bonuses and holiday pay

A bonus costs more than the check. Bonuses are supplemental wages: for 2026, federal income tax can be withheld at a flat 22 percent (37 percent on supplemental wages over $1 million in the year), and the business still owes its share of Social Security and Medicare, plus FUTA where it applies (IRS Publication 15). The withholding comes out of the employee's check, but the employer share is additional cash out of the business, and all of it goes into the next payroll tax deposit.

Decide the bonus amount and the month it will be paid in October. A December bonus decided in December is decided without knowing whether December can carry it.

5. Estimated tax payments

The fourth-quarter federal estimated tax payment for 2026 is due January 15, 2027. It sits just outside a 90-day window that starts in October, which is exactly why it gets left off. A plan that ends December 31 can look fine and leave the business short two weeks later. Extend the plan to mid-January, or at least carry the payment as a note under December.

For a calendar-year C corporation, the fourth installment falls inside the quarter: it is due December 15 (IRC §6655(c)).

Quarterly estimated taxes covers how to size the payment, and reviewing owner pay before December covers the year-end decision that usually sits next to it.

6. Supplier terms and early-payment discounts

Some suppliers offer a discount for paying early, such as 2 percent if paid within 10 days with the full amount due in 30. Giving up that 2 percent to keep the cash 20 more days works out to roughly 37 percent a year in effective borrowing cost (2/98 × 365/20). When cash is available, the discount is usually the better use of it. When a Q4 month is tight, the question is which discounts to keep, not which bills to pay late.

Q4 is also when year-end supplier promotions and "buy before prices go up" offers appear. Treat those like any other purchase: on the plan first, then bought.

Put Them on a Month-by-Month Page

The weekly forecast is where you manage cash. For the annual items, a simpler view helps, with one line per month:

• October — in: collections on billed work; out: normal costs, plus any renewals and audit bills due
• November — in: collections; out: normal costs, plus property taxes if you are taking the 4 percent
• December — in: collections; out: normal costs, plus bonuses, holiday payroll, and a C corporation's December 15 estimate
• January, first half — out: the January 15 estimated tax payment

Two rules keep the page honest. Count incoming cash in the month you realistically expect it, not the month it is due; a slow customer's invoice is not October cash just because it is dated September. And enter the annual items first, before the routine ones, because they are the ones that get forgotten.

If one month does not work, October still gives you choices: move the property tax payment to the month with room, change the timing of bonuses, push collections harder in the month before the gap, or hold a purchase. By December, most of those choices are gone.

How KDM Accounting Services Can Help

At KDM Accounting Services, we help Florida contractors and small businesses see what is coming before it arrives. We can:

• Review last year's fourth-quarter activity and identify the annual bills
• Estimate the workers' comp audit difference from actual payroll
• Build a month-by-month view of October through mid-January
• Connect bonus, owner pay, and estimated tax decisions to that view

The goal is a plan without the surprises you could have seen in October.

Find the Once-a-Year Bills Now

The routine bills are rarely what tightens Q4. It is the handful of annual ones that arrive together. Listing them now, while there is still time to choose when to pay them, turns them from surprises into scheduled payments.

If you want help putting the fourth quarter on one page, contact KDM Accounting Services. We'll help you find the bills before they find you.

Related reading

• What Contractors Should Tighten Up Before October 1
• Cash Flow Forecasting Basics for Florida Contractors
• Year-End Collections: Getting Paid Before the Calendar Turns
• Year-End Tax Planning Checklist for Florida Contractors
• Don’t Wait Until December to Review Owner Pay
• Bookkeeping services